A winter forecast that will warm Marylanders’ hearts 

Posted: 8:17 pm Mon, August 23, 2010
By Ben Mook
Daily Record Business Writer

Homeowners and businesses might get a break on their power bills this coming winter, with one early forecast calling for mild temperatures almost 29 percent warmer than last year.

Bethesda-based Commodity Weather Group LLC on Monday issued its winter 2010-2011 outlook for the core heating season of December through February. The company is predicting the Baltimore and Washington area could have its warmest winter since 2006 as the brunt of colder weather and snow may hit the Pacific Northwest instead.

“It looks quite the opposite from last winter,” Commodity Weather Group President and meteorologist Matt Rogers said. “Everything seems to be pointing in the direction of a warmer weather for us.”

A mild winter could have an effect on utility companies beyond the fact that warmer temperatures would mean homeowners and businesses would use less electricity and natural gas.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, there was 3.01 trillion cubic feet of gas in storage in the U.S. last Friday, a 7 percent increase over the average of the last five years. A mild winter with less demand and an increased capacity could make natural gas even cheaper.

“We’re coming off record cold in the winter and record heat in the summer,” Paul Fremont, an energy industry analyst with Jefferies & Co. Inc. in New York, said. “And, there is no [increase] so far, in terms of gas prices, and a mild winter could take it even further down.”

Commodity Weather Group is pegging its forecast on a developing and strengthening La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean. In a La Niña, the waters in the central tropical Pacific would redirect a lot of the colder weather normally headed for the mid-Atlantic to the Pacific Northwest.

Mike Halpert, deputy director of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, agreed that it is possible La Niña conditions could lead to a milder winter. However, NOAA’s prediction says there’s an equal chance that the area will have above average, below average or average conditions this winter. The agency updates its winter forecast each month from September through November.

“We’re still sweating through the summer,” Halpert said. “But the La Niña that developed in July has gotten stronger and it will continue to strengthen and impact us this winter.”

Rogers said a forecast this far out could certainly change in the next few months, but he felt confident the La Niña conditions would continue to strengthen. He said it seemed this winter could see a record-breaking La Niña event.

“When you have something like that it gives you a clue earlier about what’s going on,” Rogers said.