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Alexander Pyles tracks news from the State House

Md. robocall says voters can relax

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Some Maryland voters have reported receiving robocalls (while polls were still open) urging them to relax and “take it easy” because Gov. Martin O’Malley and President Barack Obama have been “successful,” according to TBD.com.

TBD, which has been posting election updates throughout the day from Maryland, Virginia and DC, linked to the audio as well, which appears to have been posted by the O’Malley camp on its campaign website.

Both campaigns have sent e-mails to supporters about lighter-than-expected turnout, but state officials, as reported by the Sun and the Post, say that turnout will be typical for a gubernatorial election.

We’ll keep you posted on this if anything further develops on the robocall front — an easy O’Malley victory and this may be an afterthought, but a strong showing or victory by former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., that’s another story.  We’ll probably have numbers rolling in before too much longer, so stay tuned for those, too.

Category: election 2010, Maryland

Ehrlich, O’Malley make last-minute push for turnout

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With little more than three hours left to vote, both gubernatorial campaigns were fretting turnout — urging, begging voters to head to the polls and get their friends to cast ballots, too.

As Gov. Martin O’Malley and former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. stumped at voting locations around the state, their campaigns blasted e-mails to catch those stuck in their offices.

O’Malley’s campaign manager sent an email after 4 p.m. with the subject line “Need Your Help Right Now.” He warned supporters of O’Malley, who has led by double-digits in some recent polls, against being overconfident in the waning hours of the campaign.

“We are getting reports from the field that turnout is lighter than expected in a few key counties,” Tom Russell wrote.

He repeated a plea from the campaign earlier in the day for recipients of the email to send it to 10 friends.

Former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., counting on riding an anti-Democratic wave, also drummed up support online.

“The enthusiasm at the polls today has been wonderful to see, but I wanted to remind you one last time that now is the time to cast your vote,” he wrote.

One turnout figure is certain — 6.3 percent of the state’s registered voters cast their ballots early this year. Of those 219,601 ballots, 140,341 were cast by Democrats and 58,522 by Republicans. The Board of Elections plans to get those results online shortly after the polls close at 8 p.m. So stay tuned.

Category: election 2010, Maryland

Not all Question A’s are created equal

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Anne Arundel County’s top ballot question may have the monopoly on yard signs, media coverage and multi-million dollar budgets for television and radio advertising, but it isn’t the only “Question A” that Maryland’s voters will see Tuesday.

Eight other counties have questions on their ballots that range from simple and straightforward, to nearly indecipherable without a lawyer and copy of your county’s charter and code handy.

Baltimore County voters will decide on binding arbitration for general county employees, meaning the county government and unions would have to abide by arbitrators’ decisions in labor disputes. County Executive Jim Smith has urged residents to vote “No.”

In Baltimore city, voters will find this language under Question A: “Resolution No. 10-19 for the purpose of repealing a requirement for certain unanticipated surplus funds to be transferred to a capital bond fund appropriation reduction account and used only for certain purposes.”

The city and county, by sheer volume, are way ahead in the ballot question race. County voters will see questions A through K, and city voters, A through J.

Caroline County’s Question A will determine how the school board is chosen, potentially making three seats elected and leaving two as gubernatorial appointees.

Elsewhere in the state, Cecil County has its county charter up for a vote, Montgomery County has ambulance fees on the ballot, Prince George’s County wants to borrow $62.3 million for county buildings and Talbot County voters will decide whether or not to give their council greater flexibility in redirecting capital dollars.

Finally, in Wicomico County, voters there will vote up or down to changes to the qualifications required to be county auditor.

And that Anne Arundel County Question A that I hinted at? That, of course, is the zoning developer David Cordish needs to build a casino next to the Arundel Mills shopping mall. Cordish and opponents led by the Maryland Jockey Club and Penn National Gaming Inc. have poured millions into the campaign and the club has threatened to slash its racing operations if Cordish wins approval to build.

Category: election 2010, Maryland

Speaker Busch in the GOP crosshairs

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When former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., a Republican, spoke to the Maryland Chamber of Commerce Thursday night, he made a point to compliment Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr, the Democratic leader of the upper chamber that overturned dozens of his vetoes.

Nearly in the same breath, Ehrlich predicted Miller’s counterpart in the House of Delegates, Speaker Michael E. Busch would soon be adding “former” to the front of his title.

“I think Mike Busch is going to be a former speaker real soon, and that’s a good thing for our state,” said Ehrlich, who blamed Busch for sinking slot machine legislation during Ehrlich’s term.

Busch, who spoke to chamber members Friday morning, chuckled when Ehrlich’s comments were relayed to him.

“I’m glad to see that governor hasn’t lost his sense of humor,” Busch said. “I think things are looking fine and I appreciate his warm endorsement.”

Busch’s district in Annapolis is split 2-1, with Democrats Busch and Del. Virginia Clagett joined by first-term Republican Del. Ron George. The GOP, looking to cut into the overwhelming Democratic majority, covet seats there in District 30 and would no doubt love to knock off the powerful speaker. Busch’s Republican challengers include George and former Del. Herb McMillan, who represented the district from 2003 to 2007.

In making a plea to business leaders for their support, Ehrlich predicted his party could make a dent in the Democratic hold on the General Assembly, and victory was within his grasp.

“I think we’re going to win the race,” said Ehrlich, who has trailed by double-digit margins in some recent polls. “I think it’s going to be close, but I think we’re going to win the race.”

Category: election 2010, Maryland

Ehrlich, O’Malley and poll overload

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As Election Day draws near and polls put Martin O’Malley’s lead over Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. at five, eight, 10, 11 and 14 points, count on the New York Times for a little clarity.

The statistical gurus who run www.fivethirtyeight.com, compiling mountains of polling data in months leading up to the 2008 presidential election, have migrated their work to the Times and are keeping an eye on hundreds of midterm races. Among those, lucky for us, is the Maryland governor’s race.

They input all the publicly available data into their statistical model and spit out projected election results (O’Malley 53.7 percent, Ehrlich 43.7 percent on Oct. 26) and the chances that O’Malley hangs on to his seat (96.3 percent). A set of forecasts is listed at the bottom of the page.

Look at the data below the charts for the polls they use, and the weight assigned to each in the model. The Oct. 26 model likes the ABC/Post poll that showed O’Malley with a 54-40 lead the best.

Ehrlich has dismissed the recent poll results, saying that an internal poll conducted by his campaign shows O’Malley only up 3 points.

The trend in the race the statistical model reveals is interesting. The race was closest in the middle of July, with just a few fractions of a percentage point separating the candidates. But after that, O’Malley developed a small lead through the rest of the summer. He was the only candidate advertising at that point, using his sizable money advantage to buy up TV and radio spots.

O’Malley’s lead widened in September, when his attack ads began to hit. And in October, O’Malley’s lead really opened up, as individual polls have shown.

Category: election 2010, Maryland

Maryland voters weigh in on budget balancing

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If you’re not sick of polls, check out this budget-balancing question asked by Maryland Reporter in the latest survey by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.

Much has been made about the would-be tax policies of Martin O’Malley and Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in the coming year. But the Maryland Reporter question actually asked the people who would be paying the higher taxes or coping with decreased services how they felt about the situation.

When asked about the $6 billion in deficits the state faces over the next four years, nearly half of the voters said they prefer a combination of tax increases and budget trimming, while only 18 percent said they prefer budget cutting alone. Read the analysis by Len Lazarick.

The poll surveyed 816 likely voters last week.

Category: election 2010, Maryland

Dems try to get out the (early) vote

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Former President Bill Clinton joined most of Maryland’s big-time Democratic officeholders at a rally Thursday afternoon and evening, imploring hundreds of supporters to cast their ballots on Election Day and the days before.

“Martin O’Malley has put you in the forefront of the 21st century,” Clinton said, “and you need to keep him right there.”

Clinton hit on several of O’Malley’s common campaign themes — a four-year college tuition freeze (although only three of those years were during O’Malley’s term) and high rankings for education and high-tech businesses.

O’Malley’s opponent in the gubernatorial contest, former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., announced Thursday he would be bringing his own big gun Sunday. He will campaign Sunday in Montgomery County with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Read the rest of this entry »

Category: election 2010, Maryland

Pro-slots holds slim lead in Anne Arundel County

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Developer David Cordish and his supporters in Anne Arundel County have a slim lead in the campaign to win zoning approval for a casino next to the Arundel Mills shopping mall, according to a poll released Wednesday.

But, that edge may not be enough, according to the pollster, Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc.

The poll found 48 percent of Anne Arundel County voters support the mall-side casino plan (or, rather, the zoning that would allow Cordish, who holds a gaming license, to move ahead with development of the Maryland Live! Casino) while 45 percent said they would vote against it. Seven percent were undecided.

Despite the lead, analysis done by Gonzales said Cordish’s side will need to flip more voters to its side by Nov. 2.

Read the rest of this entry »

Category: election 2010, Slots

Maryland’s business ranking slips, but so does Va.’s

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Maryland slid two places this year in the Forbes ranking of the “Best States for Businesses and Careers.”

The ol’ line state is still in the top 15 nationwide, however, sitting in the 14th spot after holding No. 12 last year.

This year, however, the schadenfreude can flow both ways across the Potomac, as Virginia, long Maryland’s foil in discussions of business climate and friendliness, was knocked from its perch atop the rankings by Utah.

Virginia, which held the top spot for the four previous years, had to settle for No. 2 in 2010.

Much of the governor’s race has revolved around business issues, and the topic of business regulation has actually bubbled up in the debates between former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. and Gov. Martin O’Malley. (Ehrlich, in an interview with The Daily Record this week, said he would take a “power house” to the Department of Labor Licensing and Regulation.)

Like all the business rankings that have come before it, the Forbes list has some statistics for everyone. The study looked at regulatory environment, labor supply, economic climate, business costs, quality of life and growth prospects in all 50 states.

Maryland fared well in the labor supply (8th nationally), quality of life (8), and, perhaps surprisingly, regulatory environment (9). Those first two categories play into the strengths of O’Malley, who never shies away from talking about the quality of the public schools and universities in the state and, more generally, the quality of life here.

The regulatory environment ranking could give O’Malley an easy retort to Ehrlich’s claims about regulators treating businesses like piggy banks, rather than partners in economic development. Of course, Virginia had the second-best regulatory environment.

Maryland was in the middle of the pack for economic climate (19) and growth prospects (29) but got killed in the business costs category, finishing 49th in the country. That category includes things like labor, energy and taxes, and was weighted most heavily in determining the overall ranking, according to Forbes. Only Massachusetts did worse in business costs, and finished 16th overall.

I wouldn’t be surprised to hear about those last three rankings from Ehrlich, especially the issue of business costs. Along with the regulatory environment criticisms, Ehrlich has said the tax burden on businesses is oppressive.

Virginia’s strongest attributes, according to Forbes, are its regulatory environment (No. 2 in the country), labor supply (3), economic climate (4) and quality of life (6). Prospects for growth there ranked 14th, and business costs, 24th.

So what does it all really mean? Well, one thing it doesn’t mean is that Maryland is definitely the 14th most business-friendly state. Depending on who you ask, Maryland ranges anywhere from 3 to 45 on lists gauging business friendliness in some form or fashion.

Category: election 2010, Maryland

Ehrlich dishes on bracelets, Silly Bandz

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Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., the former Maryland delegate, U.S. representative and, of course, governor, wears a Silly Band.

(For those of you not in the know, Silly Bandz is the plural. And that’s how the rubber bands shaped like dinosaurs, pop stars and cartoon characters are generally worn — several, dozens, at a time.)

The Republican gubernatorial candidate, however, just wears the one. He visited The Daily Record for an interview this week and as the questions were wrapping up, one of the editors asked about the bracelets visible below the cuff of his shirt.

The question led to the most somber stretch of the interview with the normally affable Ehrlich.

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Category: election 2010, Maryland

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