By: Liz Farmer

Two bits of retail news came my way this morning that don’t look good for retailers. With the massive snowstorms and weather across the country in February, the news isn’t a surprise … but that still doesn’t soften the blow.

A report by Richard Jaffe, an analyst for Stifel Nicholaus, says in his February same-store sales preview that the harsh weather will likely contribute to a drop in business for this month.

“While cabin fever contributed to some short term sales spikes and likely strong Internet sales, we anticipate February sales will be off the pace with those seen in [the fourth quarter],” he wrote.

He said he believes consumers “splurged” in the fourth quarter after being on a tight budget all year. But now they’ll likely return to that frugality given the uncertain economic environment.

“A focus on value is likely to prevail with retailers effectively utilizing promotions to communicate value,” Jaffe wrote.

Contributing to that notion of uncertainty is the other piece of news I received today — the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in January, declined sharply in February.

The Index now stands at 46, down from 56.5 in January. The Present Situation Index decreased to 19.4 from 25.2 and the Expectations Index declined to 63.8 from 77.3 last month.

Yuck.

But Jaffe points out there are still a few winners to look out for. He likes The Gap, Children’s Place and American Eagle for their promotional strategy and likes the fact that discount retailer TJX Companies is increasing its inventory of premium brands.

He also predicts Aeropostale’s “compelling fashion at very sharp price points” and Urban Outfitters’ “willingness to take risks and offer the consumer fashionable and differentiated merchandise” will help both retailers gain market share this spring.