A third-quarter survey by the University of Baltimore’s Jacob France Institute has found t Maryland’s economy has been “staggered” by the gridlock in federal spending and the European debt crisis.

The Maryland Business Climate Survey found that stands in marked contrast to its findings in the second quarter, when business owners in Maryland said they were optimistic about the state’s economy.

One bright spot is that overall sales growth continues to hold steady, according to the report, produced every quarter by the institute at UB’s Merrick School of Business.

“It appears that the general improvement in expectations for an economic recovery that we were seeing during the first half of the year have evaporated,” said Richard Clinch, director of economic research at the Jacob France Institute, in a statement.

“Across the board, all over the state, we’re finding that Maryland firms have ratcheted back their expectations for market expansion, with just over half expecting their market to expand in the coming year—that’s down from 63 percent in the first and second quarters,” Clinch said. “About 20 percent of the businesses in our survey are expecting declines, and that’s more than double the level of the previous two quarters.”

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The collective mood of Baltimore’s baseball faithful is off-the-charts positive today with the Orioles off to a 3-0 start after a season-opening sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays.

Those 162-0 tweets and Facebook updates never get old to this long-suffering fan.

The O’s host the Detroit Tigers today in its home opener, which means new life for the businesses and vendors in and around Oriole Park at Camden Yards. To that end, our old friend Daraius Irani at Towson University’s Regional Economic Studies Institute examines what Opening Day means in terms of dollars and cents.

One finding: If a team boosts its winning percentage by 10 percent, its home attendance climbs by about 9.6 percent.

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It’s been an on-the-one-hand-on-the-other-hand kind of week for anyone trying to get a handle on the state of our economic health.

It started with word from the Cambridge, Mass.-based National Bureau of Economic Research that the recession — the longest the U.S. had endured since World War II — had ended in June 2009.

Oh, really? As the Associated Press dryly pointed out, Americans are still struggling with a 9.6 percent unemployment rate, meager wage gains, struggling home values and sales, and a foreclosure plague that shows little sign of slowing.

And on that note, there was plenty of real estate news this week — none of it very good. Sales of previously occupied homes crept up in August, but not enough to keep the summer from being the slowest for sales in a decade. New home sales were actually worse in August — the second-slowest pace on record. One economist called it “a pitiful performance.”

On the other hand, home construction is up 25 percent from the bottom in April 2009. But on still another hand, it is 74 percent below the peak in January 2006.

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The team’s value may have slipped a little, but the Baltimore Ravens’ overall rank rose in 2009 to the 8th-most valuable NFL franchise according to Forbes.com.

Steve Bisciotti’s Ravens’ total worth fell 1 percent in the past year to $1.07 billion — about two-thirds of Bisciotti’s estimated net worth of $1.5 billion — but the team climbed three places in Forbes’ annual team valuation rankings.

The Dallas Cowboys came in at No. 1 with a $1.8 billion value, followed by the Ravens’ Beltway rival, the Washington Redskins, valued at $1.55 billion. (On a related note, the Ravens pounded the Skins in their preseason game, 23-3 … I guess money isn’t everything. )

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Not shockingly, it’s really anybody’s guess as to how back-to-school sales will turn out this August. With the stock market and consumer confidence levels bouncing back and forth between the plus-side and the minus-side, it seems like a Magic 8 Ball would be just as good at predicting the retail future as a trained economist.

But here’s what the economists are saying this week: The International Council of Shopping Centers says this season’s sales (from mid-July to mid-September) will increase by 5.4 percent. That would be the biggest percentage increase (not dollar increase) since 2005, according to the ICSC. The council based its prediction on recent sales of family clothing, shoes, electronics and books as reported by the U.S. Commerce Department. Sales in those segments collectively declined by 2.8 percent in 2009 and 0.4 percent in 2008 during the July-September period.

“Based on arithmetic alone, the expected July jump in [back-to-school] spending could be extremely strong,” Michael P. Niemira, chief economist and director of research for ICSC, said in a statement. “Layer on some fundamental improvement in the consumer economy, including some pickup in the pace of earnings growth, and we should see a strong 7.6 percent rise for July, continued strength in August with a 5.7 percent increase, and a moderate 3 percent rise in September.”

Meanwhile the National Retail Federation says that summer sales so far make it hard to predict back-to-school spending. According to the NRF, June retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) decreased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted over May and increased 3.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

“Today’s data shows consumers continue to take a cautious approach towards shopping,” said NRF President and CEO Matt Shay. “However, growth in key areas such as electronics, apparel and department stores is an encouraging sign as we enter the back-to-school shopping season.”

So, in other words, who the heck knows how the rest of summer will play out? It seems that some kind of year-over-year increase is in our future but just how big that increase will be is pretty uncertain.

And considering the sales declines of the last two summers, a minimal increase over terrible sales would be, well, less terrible. But not necessarily anything to write home about.

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Yesterday I wrote about Money Magazine’s list of its best small cities to live. Eden Prairie, Minn., edged out Ellicott City/Columbia for first place thanks to attributes like “gently rolling hills,” “plenty of outer beauty” and other idyllic, Midwestern traits of the type long chronicled by writers like Garrison Keillor.

But consider:

1. The magazine says one of the headlining reasons the Minnesota town wins is because it has “a dynamite economy.”  But then it turns around and says not only does Ellicott City/Columbia have a jobless rate “just as enviable as Eden Prairie’s,” but it is an “economic powerhouse.”  I’m not sure how dynamite compares quantitatively with a powerhouse, but by Money Magazine’s standards, the difference is apparently a measly .1 percent.  Come on.  Negligible at best.

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The Associated Press has helpfully compiled a comparison of the Federal Reserve’s statements on the economy and its policy positions from its last regular meeting on April 27-28 and the meeting that wrapped up Wednesday.

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If the summer wait staff at your favorite beach hangout in Ocean City is looking a little more seasoned than usual, don’t be surprised.

According to outplacement consulting firm Challenger Gray & Christmas Inc., hiring will improve over last year, when employment among 16- to 19-year-olds grew by less than 1.2 million jobs from May through July, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But with national employment still at nearly 10 percent, those teens looking in the usual places for summer jobs will have more competition than usual.

“Teens looking for traditional summer positions in malls, restaurants and movie theaters could face stiff competition from older and more experienced job seekers, leaving the best opportunities for those who take a more entrepreneurial approach to summer employment,” the Monday news release by Challenger said.

Last year, summer employment among teens grew by 1.16 million — slightly better than 2008, when employers added 1.15 million teen workers between May and July, the fewest since 1954. But compared with the more than 1.7 million summer jobs for teens added in 2004 and ‘05, you get the idea how bleak the last few years have been.

Not all traditional summer jobs will be flooded with older applicants, Challenger said. The firm expects jobs in day camps, neighborhood pools and amusement parks to be for fruitful for teens. It also says with families cutting out expenses like lawn care and home cleaning to keep their budgets in line, there may be an opportunity there for teens to offer their services at a lower rate.

“Most importantly, do not get frustrated by failure,” the release said. “Many teens give up after applying to 10 or 12 jobs, concluding that ‘no one is hiring teens this summer.’ Chances are good that there are more than 10 or 12 employers in your city or town, so it is necessary to cast a wider net.”

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There’s probably some March Madness/basketball/rebound pun I could cook up here … but I’ll leave that for the comments section.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index’s new numbers were released today and we’re now at 52.5, up from 46.4 in February. The Present Situation Index also increased to 26.0 from 21.7.

Lastly, the Expectations Index improved to 70.2 from 62.9 last month.

Here’s another little related tidbit: Job losses held steady in February and the national unemployment rate has stayed at 9.7 percent. Yeah, yeah, it’s not going down. But it didn’t go up, either.

So now that we’re not hemorrhaging jobs and there’s a slightly more positive outlook on the future, will people start spending again? My prediction (based on what I hear in my reporting) is not really. Consumers are more likely to pay down their debt first than spend willy nilly again like they didn’t have a care in the world.

Careful spending and selective purchases for most of us regular folks (for the uber-rich folks’ spending habits, see McCourt, Jamie) will be the trend of the future. That’s what analysts tell me and I believe it.

Anyone care to debate?

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Rewards cards or frequent diner cards are pretty old news when it comes to walk-up establishments like coffee shops or delis.

And you might find them at chain restaurants like Applebees or T.G.I. Friday’s.

But you just don’t see them at white table cloth establishments … or at least you didn’t. But Baltimore’s relatively new upscale eatery, the B&O American Brasserie located in the Hotel Monaco, is bucking the establishment. The restaurant is offering a lunch rewards card that diners can get stamped once for every lunch they have there. Four stamps earns you a free lunch valued up to $14 (excluding tax and tip of course.)

Now, you might be rolling your eyes — I did. After all, $14 isn’t as exciting as a totally free lunch. But after thinking it through, I have to give the restaurant credit — its lunch menu, while limited, is affordable compared with its downtown competition. Salads and entrees range from $9 to $17 so depending on what you order you’d still throw in a few dollars for a drink and tip but it’s still a decent deal.

And of course, it encourages returning customers — something all restaurants in B&O’s category are trying to figure out how to do.

But I have to wonder about the notion of a frequent diner’s card … given its usage with cheaper establishments and chains, does this hurt B&O’s brand image at all?

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