North America, once a sponge that sucked in a significant portion of the world’s oil, will instead be supplying the world with oil and other liquid hydrocarbons by the end of this decade, according to ExxonMobil’s annual long-term energy forecast.
And the “almost unspeakable” amount of natural gas found in recent years in the U.S. and elsewhere in North America will be enough to make the region one of the world’s biggest exporters of that fuel by 2025, even as domestic demand for it increases, according to Bill Colton, Exxon’s chief strategist.
“The world has such an improved outlook for supplies,” Colton said in an interview. “Peak oil theorists have been run out of town by American ingenuity.”
In a forecast that might make economists happy but environmentalists fret, Exxon’s two chief products, oil and natural gas, will be abundant and affordable enough to meet the rising demand for energy in the developing world as the global middle class swells to 5 billion from 2 billion and buys energy-hungry conveniences such as cars and air conditioners.
Exxon’s outlook forecasts world energy supply and demand through 2040 and is updated every year. It is noted by investors and policymakers and used by Exxon to shape its long-term strategy. Colton said the recent sharp decline in oil prices does not have much effect on the company’s long-term vision, and that the company expects prices to rise and fall, sometimes dramatically, throughout the period.
While Exxon expects wind, solar and other non-hydro electric energy to grow faster by far than any other energy technology over the period, those renewables will provide just 4 percent of the world’s energy by 2040, up from 1 percent in 2010. Fossil fuels will still dominate: Oil will account for 32 percent of world energy, natural gas for 26 percent, and coal for 19 percent. Nuclear and biomass will account for 8 percent each, and hydroelectric power will account for 3 percent.
Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist and director of Penn State’s Earth System Science Center, notes that many experts dispute Exxon’s conclusion on renewables because in several places around the world renewable energy is competitive with the price of traditional power, even without a high price on carbon pollution that Exxon and others seem to agree is coming.
Scientists say if Exxon’s vision comes to pass the world’s climate system will become dangerous and chaotic, and some environmental economists suggest that economies will be forced to stop burning fossil fuels at such high rates to prevent catastrophic climate change.
“Exxon’s vision of a fossil fuel-driven future is one in which carbon dioxide levels rise well beyond the dangerous limit, where we will witness fundamental threats to food, water, land, our economy, national security, and our environment,” Mann says. “Let us hope, for the sake of us and our planet, that this is not our future.”