C. Fraser Smith: What’s Elijah Cummings waiting for?

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He’s been a star during the interminable Benghazi hearings. He’s a major player in House of Representatives’ Democratic politics – one of its most influential and by now recognizable figures.

Rep. Elijah E. Cummings represents Maryland’s Baltimore-centric 7th district, but he probably has overwhelming name recognition statewide.

He has a million-dollar campaign war chest.

He knows he has a big lead among actual and real contenders for the Democratic Party’s nomination for a successor to U.S. Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski. (He commissioned his own poll.)

All of these strengths have been on the record for months. In addition, he is an absolutely riveting, inspirational speaker with an unparalleled personal story.

He might well be thinking of a seat in the U.S. Senate as the fitting capstone for his career. The tribute might seem to be there for the taking.

But he’s still thinking and mulling and mulling and mulling.

What’s he waiting for?

His mulling becomes an unspoken narrative running behind the race between Maryland Democratic Reps. Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards for the nomination for the Mikulski seat. One of the polls circulating among various observers shows Van Hollen and Edwards tied, with Cummings way ahead of both.

There are questions about the poll’s reliability but no questions about Cummings’ strength. The race could be his to lose – if he got in.

So why doesn’t he get in? Is he damaging the prospects of Edwards and Van Hollen by staying out? As long as he’s a possibility, some backers and contributors stay on the sidelines. Maryland Democratic Party leaders and voters may choose to ignore the declared candidates until they see what Cummings finally decides to do.

The early speculation was that he would not run. He would not want to give up his pulpit in the House. He’s a leader there. He’s an important spokesman for his party every time there’s an issue like Benghazi. Sure, others would step into his place. But with the same gravitas and force? (Some political figures actually do put the country ahead of their own political interests. The two can coincide, of course.)

In the Senate, Cummings would rank at the bottom in terms of seniority. But he would undoubtedly still be a go-to guy on a variety of issues. His voice might be no less important there. So maybe he would not be giving up that much.

So why not get in the race? So many answers only he can give.

In the months since he declared himself undecided about a race, has he become more interested in the Senate? Has he grown more interested than he was then?

The betting is still on another term in the House. He sees every day how important his position is there.

Would his role in the Benghazi circus have been compromised if he were seen as driven by a Senate race? What other issues of importance would have been clouded by political aspiration?

Close observers of Cummings and Maryland politics suggest another reason for the Cummings reluctance.

Timing – and the prospect of another Senate race opportunity in the near future. What if Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin chooses not to run for re-election in 2018? If Cummings is looking to the Senate, he would probably be as strong a candidate then as he is now. He could deal with unfinished business in the House – if there is such a thing as unfinished business in House – and run for Cardin’s seat.

By then, with all this speculation, he might be an even stronger candidate than he is now.

C. Fraser Smith is host of Inside Maryland Politics on WYPR. His email address is [email protected].