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Gov. Wes Moore will deliver the commencement address at the University of Maryland, College Park on May 20. (AP File Photo/Susan Walsh)
Wes Moore’s second session will test his public messaging, political capital
Now that he’s past his “honeymoon phase” and facing questions about balancing the state’s budget amid daunting fiscal headwinds, Democratic Gov. Wes Moore‘s second legislative session will be a test of his team’s public messaging strategy and the political capital he’s accrued during his first year in office.
The state’s top Democrats have largely maintained a public message of unity with Moore, though privately some are questioning the political newcomer’s approach to governing and are concerned about administration members’ lack of experience working in state government.
With roughly six weeks to go before legislators convene the 90-day law-making session in Annapolis, Moore hadn’t publicly revealed his policy agenda. It’s expected to include about 15 bills covering a range of topics, according to a senior administration official.
The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said in mid-November that senior staff members have been debating when to begin announcing the administration’s legislative priorities.
A handful of top Democratic lawmakers, also speaking on the condition they not be identified, have said they’re concerned about the administration’s inexperience in state government.
Longtime legislators understand there are growing pains for a new administration, but they may be more open with their criticisms in the second year of a term.
Top Democratic lawmakers said they were especially confused by the administration’s decision to broadcast on the center field scoreboard at Camden Yards that a deal had been reached with the Orioles to keep the team in Baltimore. It turned out that the two sides had agreed to a nonbinding memorandum of understanding and are still yet to sign a lease.
They also pointed to Moore’s decision to join Republicans in publicly supporting the end of automatic increases to the state’s gas tax, which has long been a primary funding source for the state’s transportation projects, but which is expected to bring in significantly less revenue with rising fuel efficiency and the surging sales of electric vehicles.
Lawmakers said Moore’s support for scaling back the gas tax went against some of his policy priorities, including revamping an east-west Red Line transit project in Baltimore that’s expected to cost several billion dollars at a time when the state’s capital transportation plan is projected to have a significant funding gap in the coming years.
Moore’s office declined to make him available for an interview for this article.
Publicly, several top Democrats remain staunch supporters of Moore and have lauded the governor for the changes they say he’s brought to state government after eight years with Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in office.
State Sen. Jim Rosapape, who as the vice chair of the Senate Budget and Taxation Committee and the Senate chair of the legislature’s joint Spending Affordability Committee will play a significant role in how the state tackles the projected structural deficit, said Moore has brought “a real sense of humility” to the office.
“He wants to work with people. He makes that clear,” he said.
Last session, Rosapepe said, members of the administration worked closely with lawmakers to merge one of the governor’s top priorities — a service year option for recent high school graduates — with an existing program that had yet to make it off the ground.
“That was totally a cooperative effort,” Rosapepe said. “That’s their style, which I think is terrific.”
State Sen. Cheryl Kagan, vice chair of the Senate Education, Energy and the Environment Committee, said the administration has gotten off to an “extraordinary start” and brought a “marked improvement in collaboration with the General Assembly.”
Moore’s Cabinet, Kagan said, is “populated with extraordinary thought leaders who are passionate about making a difference and moving Maryland forward,” though she pointed out that administration members — many of whom previously worked in the federal government, nonprofit organizations and/or private industries — have had a steep learning curve.
Moore shares a party with the supermajority in both the state Senate and House of Delegates, though he’s dealing with an especially progressive legislature that’s expected to become more adept at wielding the authority to increase, decrease and move money around the governor’s proposed budget.
The 2023 session was the first in which the legislature could do more than just cut from the governor’s budget.
The state’s fiscal outlook has raised questions about which items state lawmakers will prioritize in the roughly $63 billion budget, and how a structural deficit — projected to be $320 million next fiscal year and then grow to $2.1 billion by 2029 — will affect Moore’s campaign promises.
Top Democratic lawmakers have expressed confidence about the state’s fiscal position and the legislature’s ability to balance the budget, though they’ve declined to rule out the possibility of raising taxes.
Mike Ricci, who was Hogan’s director of communications and is now a partner at a strategic communications firm, said Moore will have to be smart about the proposals on which he chooses to press lawmakers.
The Hogan administration, Ricci said, tended to focus on three to five “big things,” talked about them relentlessly and sought to deliver political wins aligning with those central policies, avoiding “detours, shiny balls (and) distractions” along the way.
“Now, the legislature would frame it differently. They would say, ‘Well, they weren’t focused on the legislature, they weren’t engaged with all of our bills,’” Ricci said. “That was part of the choice. The choice was to focus on the issues that we felt mattered most to Marylanders at the time.”
It’ll also be important to balance seeking input early on in the policy-making process with ensuring that a proposal doesn’t become a public issue, said Joe Bryce, who was a top legislative adviser for Democratic Govs. Martin O’Malley and Parris Glendening and is currently involved in the state’s negotiations with the Orioles as a board member for the Maryland Stadium Authority.
“It’s not a secretive thing,” Bryce said of the administration’s timing for releasing its agenda for the upcoming session. “It’s, again, about preparation and you don’t want to go out with a half-baked idea.”
Moore’s entering his second session with a strong approval rating — 60% according to a poll conducted in September — and rising popularity among Republicans.
Voters don’t expect change overnight and incremental progress resonates with them, as do images and headlines of the executive and legislative branches working together, said Mileah Kromer, a professional pollster and director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College.
“I’ll be interested to see how Moore’s team works the public-facing part of this,” she said. “Can he effectively communicate what they’re doing and the progress they’re trying to make under a tough budget circumstance?”
Moore will have to be especially careful about his messaging around the economy and the deficit, as Marylanders feel like the state taxes them enough already, according to Goucher Poll results over several years.
Moore is yet to say whether he’ll propose increasing taxes next year or in future years to balance the budget while advancing his priority policies and projects, and Kromer expects the administration will do everything it can to avoid that route.
“Nobody wants to be the governor who raises taxes,” she said, especially after eight years of Hogan hammering O’Malley, his predecessor, for doing so.
If Moore decides to propose raising taxes to balance the budget, lawmakers said, he should do so during the upcoming session or the one after to avoid hindering Democrats during the next gubernatorial election year.
Increasing taxes during the upcoming session would give voters time to digest the change before heading to the polls, said St. Mary’s College of Maryland political science and public policy professor Todd Eberly, a close follower of state government.
It’s also not yet clear whether the governor will favor scaling back the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future, the state’s plan to transform public education systems that involves increasing annual school funding by about $3.8 billion over 10 years, totaling nearly $40 billion and leading to the projected deficits.
Republicans have pushed for the state to scale back the Blueprint, though Eberly said it’s unlikely that Democrats would walk back their commitments and admit to “overpromising” on an issue — improving public schools — that, along with reducing crime, is what political polls have shown is most important to Maryland voters.
